DCF Valuation Calculator — Multi-Scenario FCFF & Intrinsic Value
Run a multi-stage DCF valuation with bear, base, bull and stress scenarios. Forecast FCFF, discount at WACC, add a terminal value, and get intrinsic value per share.
Multi Scenario DCF Valuation Matrix
A clear path from inputs to results.
Value a company with a multi-stage discounted-cash-flow model and stress it across bear, base, bull, and stress scenarios at once. It forecasts free cash flow to the firm, discounts it at WACC, adds a terminal value (Gordon growth or exit multiple), bridges to equity value and intrinsic price per share, and maps a full WACC-versus-growth sensitivity matrix.
How to use
- Set the revenue base and the two-stage growth profile: a stage-1 (high-growth) rate for the early years, a stage-2 rate thereafter, and the number of high-growth and total forecast years.
- Set profitability and reinvestment: starting EBITDA margin, margin expansion over the forecast, tax rate, capex as a percent of revenue, and the change in net working capital as a percent of revenue.
- Choose the terminal method — Gordon growth (perpetuity) or an exit EBITDA multiple — and set the terminal growth rate or multiple.
- Enter the balance-sheet bridge: cash, debt, and diluted shares, plus the current share price to compute upside versus the market.
- Set the WACC used to discount cash flows, and the ranges for the WACC-versus-growth sensitivity matrix.
- Read the base-case enterprise value, equity value, and per-share value, compare the four scenarios side by side, and inspect the 2D forecast bridge, the scenario band, and the 3D sensitivity surface.
The formula
Reference: Standard two-stage FCFF discounted-cash-flow valuation; Gordon (1959) growth model for terminal value; Damodaran, Investment Valuation, and Koller, Goedhart & Wessels, Valuation.
Worked example
Growth company, 10-year forecast, Gordon terminal value (default inputs)
- Revenue base $1,250m; stage-1 growth 18% (years 1-5), stage-2 growth 7.5% (years 6-10); EBITDA margin 28% expanding 6pp over the forecast; tax 23%; capex 4.5% and ΔNWC 2% of revenue; WACC 10.2%; terminal growth 3%; cash $180m; debt $620m; 145m diluted shares; current price $14.50; Gordon terminal value.
- 1
In the base case the scenario revenue-growth term adds half of the 18% stage-1 input (0.09) on top of each year's stage growth, so revenue compounds at about 27% in years 1-5 and 16.5% in years 6-10, reaching $8,862.5m by year 10. Each year EBITDA is revenue times a margin that ramps from 28% toward 34%, EBIT is 88% of EBITDA, and NOPAT is EBIT × (1 − 0.23); subtracting capex (4.5% of revenue) and the change in working capital (2% of revenue) gives FCFF, which reaches $1,465.7m in year 10. Discounting all ten years at 10.2% gives an operating PV of $3,679.8m. The Gordon terminal value is $1,465.7m × 1.03 ÷ (0.102 − 0.03) = $20,968.0m, worth $7,938.5m once discounted back ten years. Enterprise value is $3,679.8m + $7,938.5m = $11,618.3m; adding $180m cash and subtracting $620m debt gives equity of $11,178.3m, or $11,178.3m ÷ 145m = $77.09 per share — about 432% above the $14.50 market price.
Enterprise value $11,618.3m; equity value $11,178.3m; intrinsic value $77.09 per share; terminal value $20,968.0m (68% of EV); roughly +432% upside versus the $14.50 market price under the base-case assumptions.
Interpreting the result
The per-share figure is the intrinsic value implied by the assumptions; comparing it with the market price gives the upside or downside. Two things dominate the result: the terminal value, which here is about two-thirds of enterprise value, and the base-case growth path, which is unusually aggressive because the model layers the scenario growth term on top of the stage growth. The scenario cards (bear/base/bull/stress) and the WACC-versus-growth matrix show how fast the valuation moves when those assumptions change — small shifts in WACC or terminal growth swing the terminal value sharply.
Assumptions & limitations
- In the base case the effective revenue growth is the stage growth plus about 9 percentage points, because the scenario revenue-growth term contributes revenueGrowth × 0.5 (half of the 18% stage-1 input) each year; this makes the default base case deliberately aggressive, so treat the headline upside as illustrative and lower the stage-1 growth input if you want growth to match the stage rate.
- EBIT is fixed at 88% of EBITDA (a flat 12% depreciation-and-amortization assumption) rather than modeled from a separate D&A schedule.
- The terminal value uses the final forecast-year FCFF grown one period; because terminal value is roughly two-thirds of enterprise value here, the result is highly sensitive to the WACC-minus-growth spread, which must stay positive.
- Scenario inputs are blended toward the base case (margin, tax, capex, and ΔNWC shifts are applied at 60-70% weight), so the bear/bull/stress cases are dampened versions of a full re-forecast.
- A single flat WACC is applied to every year; there is no mid-year convention, no changing capital structure, and no explicit modeling of stock-based compensation or minority interests in the equity bridge.
Frequently asked questions
Why is the intrinsic value so far above the market price?
The default base case is intentionally aggressive: the model adds half of the 18% stage-1 growth input on top of each year's stage growth, so revenue effectively compounds at about 27% early on. That drives a high terminal cash flow and a $77 intrinsic value against a $14.50 market price. Lowering the stage-1 growth assumption brings the valuation down to a more conservative level.
What is the terminal value and why does it matter so much?
The terminal value captures all cash flows beyond the explicit forecast. In Gordon mode it is the final-year FCFF grown one period and divided by (WACC − terminal growth): $1,465.7m × 1.03 ÷ 0.072 = $20,968m. Discounted back it is about two-thirds of enterprise value, which is typical for growth companies and is why the valuation is so sensitive to the WACC and terminal-growth inputs.
How do the four scenarios differ?
Bear, base, bull, and stress apply progressively different shocks to growth, margins, WACC, terminal growth, and the exit multiple. The bull case lifts growth and margins and lowers WACC; the bear and stress cases do the reverse, with stress using the harshest combination. The scenario cards show the resulting per-share values side by side so you can see the valuation range rather than a single point estimate.
How is free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) calculated?
FCFF = NOPAT − CapEx − ΔNWC. NOPAT is EBIT after tax, where EBIT is 88% of EBITDA and EBITDA is revenue times the margin. The model then subtracts capital expenditure and the increase in net working capital, both set as a percent of revenue. The result is the cash available to all capital providers before financing.
What is the difference between Gordon growth and exit multiple terminal values?
Gordon growth treats the business as a perpetuity growing at a constant rate forever: TV = FCFF × (1 + g) ÷ (WACC − g). The exit multiple instead applies a market multiple to final-year EBITDA: TV = EBITDA × multiple. Gordon is grounded in cash-flow fundamentals; the exit multiple reflects what a buyer might pay. Comparing both is a useful cross-check.
Why does the equity value differ from the enterprise value?
Enterprise value is the value of the whole business to all capital providers. To get equity value you add cash (which belongs to shareholders) and subtract debt (which belongs to lenders): $11,618.3m + $180m − $620m = $11,178.3m. Dividing by the 145m diluted shares gives the $77.09 intrinsic value per share.
Methodology last reviewed 2026-10-06. Results are informational and not financial or engineering advice — see our disclaimer.